Is the United States disintegrating?

Don Watson offers a report from the United States that catches the madness and theatre of an election like no other.

This is a historically informed, mordant account of Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and a country approaching democratic high noon. From Los Angeles to New York, from Detroit to Kalamazoo, Watson observes America in all its diversity and conflict, reality and unreality. Above all, he sees the threat posed by Trump and his movement, with its blend of menace and glee, Great Replacement theory and electoral malpractice. Do Harris and the Democrats have what it takes? Can America mend its divisions? Do enough of its voters even want to?

An essential essay about a crucial moment of choice.

The fact that half the voters in a country that never stops calling itself the world's greatest democracy are cheering on a man with contempt for the law and unashamed autocratic ambitions may be explained by the man's charisma, or by his supporters' derangement. Take your pick. Maybe they all just want to have a good time. Don Watson, High Noon

This essay contains correspondence relating to Quarterly Essay 94 Highway to Hell from Lesley Hughes, Clive Hamilton, David Pocock, Polly Hemming, James Bowen, and Lesley Head

What does the new political landscape look like in Australia?

Australian politics is shifting. The two-party system was broken at the last federal election, and a minority government is a real possibility in the future. Politics-as-usual is not enough for many Australians.

In this richly insightful essay, George Megalogenis traces the how and why of a political re-alignment. He sheds new light on the topics of housing, the changing suburbs, the fate of the Voice to Parliament, and trust in politicians. This is an essay about the Greens, the teals and the Coalition. In a contest between new and old, progressive and conservative, which vision of Australia will win out? But it's also about Labor in power - is careful centrism the right strategy for the times, or is something more required?

In Minority Report, Megalogenis explores the strategies and secret understandings of a political culture under pressure.

The sword of minority government hangs over the major parties. Neither side commands an electoral base broad enough in the twenty-first century to guarantee that power, once secured, can be sustained for more than a single three-year term. Now the question turns to whether a return to minority government will further damage our democracy, or, perhaps, revitalise it.-George Megalogenis, Minority Report

This essay contains correspondence relating to Quarterly Essay 95, High Noon, from Thomas Keneally, Emma Shortis, David Smith, Bruce Wolpe, Paul Kane, and Don Watson

America is fading, and China will soon be the dominant power in our region. What does this mean for Australia's future?

In this controversial and urgent essay, Hugh White shows that the contest between America and China is classic power politics of the harshest kind. He argues that we are heading for an unprecedented future, one without an English-speaking great and powerful friend to keep us secure and protect our interests.

White sketches what the new Asia will look like, and how China could use its power. He also examines what has happened to the United States globally, under both Barack Obama and Donald Trump - a series of setbacks which Trump's bluster on North Korea cannot disguise.

White notes that we have got into the habit of seeing the world through Washington's eyes, and argues that unless this changes, we will fail to navigate the biggest shift in Australia's international circumstances since European settlement. The signs of failure are already clear, as we risk sliding straight from complacency to panic.

'For almost a decade now, the world's two most powerful countries have been competing. America has been trying to remain East Asia's primary power, and China has been trying to replace it. How the contest will proceed - whether peacefully or violently, quickly or slowly - is still uncertain, but the most likely outcome is now becoming clear. America will lose, and China will win.' --Hugh White, Without America

Who can be a larrikin and how is it used politically?

What makes a top bloke? Does the myth of the larrikin still hold sway? And whatever happened to class in Australia?

In this perceptive and often hilarious essay, Lech Blaine dissects some top blokes, with particular focus on Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, but stretching back to Bob Hawke and Kerry Packer. This is a riveting narrative of how image conquered politics, just as globalisation engulfed the Australian economy. While many got rich and entertained, look where we ended up.

Blaine shows how first Howard, then Morrison, brought a cohort of voters over to the Coalition side, flipping what was once working-class Labor culture. He weaves in his own experiences as he explores the persona of the Aussie larrikin. What are its hidden contradictions - can a larrikin be female, Indigenous or Muslim, say? - and how has it been transformed by an age of affluence? He makes the case that the time has come to bury a myth and for the nation to seize a new reality.

Anti-authoritarianism doesn't need the vocabulary of the bush poets, the accent of Mick Dundee or the imprimatur of the shock jocks and media tycoons to inspire social change. It sounds like Grace Tame, and acts like Behrouz Boochani, and looks like Adam Goodes. Lech Blaine, Top Blokes

A prime minister in the making, and a nation on the move.

In Lone Wolf, Katharine Murphy offers a new portrait of Anthony Albanese. She reveals a leader who has always had to think three steps ahead, who was an insurgent for much of his professional life, but had to learn to listen and devise strategies of inclusivity to win the 2022 election.

Following that victory, Greens leader Adam Bandt voiced hopes for a great era of progressive reform, but it is Albanese and Labor who will ultimately decide whether that potential is reached or not.

Drawing on interviews with Albanese, Bandt, Penny Wong, Jim Chalmers, Mark Butler, Katy Gallagher, Simon Holmes à Court, Zoe Daniel and more, Murphy's brilliant essay draws out the meaning of an eventful political year. She offers a telling character study of the prime minister, investigates the success of the teals and the Greens, and looks to the challenges of the future.

Taking the party leadership was both a beginning and an ending. Insurgency was done. New skills were required ... Albanese knew how to recruit people to a cause and to get them to a similar place. He'd been doing that since his teens. But to win, he had to learn to listen, to trust his team and to lead, understanding that sometimes leadership involves holding back rather than imagining it's all on you. Katharine Murphy, Lone Wolf

In Exit Right, Judith Brett explains why the tide turned on John Howard. This is an essay about leadership, in particular Howard's style of strong leadership which led him to dominate his party with such ultimately catastrophic results.

In this definitive account, Brett discusses how age became Howard's Achilles heel, how he lost the youth vote, how he lost Bennelong, and how he waited too long to call the election. She looks at the government's core failings - the policy vacuum, the blindness to climate change, the disastrous misjudgment of WorkChoices - and shows how Howard and his team came more and more to insulate themselves from reality.

With drama and insight, Judith Brett traces the key moments when John Howard stared defeat in the face, and explains why, after the Keating-Howard years, the ascendancy of Kevin Rudd marks a new phase in the nation's political life.

It is when a leader's grip on political power starts to slip, when his threats and bribes miss their mark, when he starts to make uncharacteristic mis- takes and when what had once been strengths reveal their limitations, that we can see most clearly the inner workings of that leadership. This essay is about John Howard's leadership, seen through the prism of its failings. Judith Brett, Exit Right

This issue contains correspondence relating to Reaction Time by Ian Lowe from Guy Pearse, Robert Merkel, Michael Angwin, Christine Milne, Mark Diesendorf, and Ian Lowe.

Australia's response to climate change must truly baffle outsiders. Why do our leaders pretend that they are leading the world in the battle against global warming? When do environmental risks outweigh economic benefits? Why dig deeper when the rest of the world is looking for alternatives to coal?

Why do our leaders pretend that they are leading the world in the battle against global warming? When do environmental risks outweigh economic benefits? Why dig deeper when the rest of the world is looking for alternatives to coal? This is an essay about 'quarry vision, ' the belief that Australia's greatest asset is its mineral and energy resources - coal above all. How has this distorted our national politics and stymied action on climate change? In this powerful essay about the national interest, Guy Pearse dissects the Rudd government's climate change response- from the Garnaut report to the silver bullet of 'clean coal' and beyond. He exposes the shadowy world of the carbon lobbyists; how they think, operate and advance their agenda. He discusses the future of the coal industry and challenges the economic orthodoxy. Quarry vision, he argues, is a trap and a blind faith we can no longer afford.

'A generation ago, our leaders showed courage and vision in pushing for unilateral trade liberalisation - they knew it was good for Australia no matter how fast others acted. They were right to turn Australia's economy outward, and the establishment they challenged was wrong. Today the generation that was right on trade liberalisation has much of it wrong on climate change. They now wear the establishment mantle, and it is their turn to be challenged.' Guy Pearse, Quarry Vision

This issue contains correspondence relating to American Revolution by Kate Jennings from Gavin Kitching, and Christina Thompson

The top job is within Bill Shorten's grasp. But who is he? How did he rise to become Labor leader? And does he have what it takes to beat Malcolm Turnbull and lead the country?

In this dramatic essay, David Marr traces the hidden career of a Labor warrior. He shows how a brilliant recruiter and formidable campaigner mastered first the unions and then the party. Marr presents a man willing to deal with his enemies and shift his allegiances, whose ambition to lead has been fixed since childhood.

But does he stand for anything? Is Shorten a defender of Labor values in today's Australia or a shape-shifter, driven entirely by politics? How does the union world he comes from shape the prime minister he might be? Marr reveals a man we hardly know: a virtuoso with numbers and a strategist of skill who Labor hopes will return the party to power.

Australians distrust Shorten almost as much as they distrust Abbott. That's why this election will be fought on trust. It's going to be dirty. At the heart of the contest will be Shorten's character. All the way to polling day, Australians will be invited to rake over every detail of his short life and hidden career. David Marr, Faction Man

This issue contains correspondence relating to Blood Year by David Kilcullen from Hugh White, Jim Molan, Waleed Aly, Paul McGeough, Audrey Kurth Cronin, Martin Chulov, James Brown, Clive Kessler, and David Kilcullen.

In Bipolar Nation, Peter Hartcher discusses the fantasies and realities at the heart of our politics. When our political leaders look at us, what do they see? What are the hopes, fears and dreams of the Australian electorate, and how might they be turned to election- winning advantage? What, most fundamentally, do we want in a prime minister?

In this scintillating and original essay, Peter Hartcher investigates today's bipolar nation, where Australians are more economically secure, yet existentially as anxious as ever. He explains how the Lucky Country and the Frightened Country will be the two grand themes of the election year, and discusses how John Howard will set out to craft an election-winning strategy on that basis. He revisits Donald Horne's Lucky Country, looks at the legacy of Paul Keating, and analyses Kevin Rudd's many- layered effort to out-manoeuvre the Prime Minister.

The Lucky Country finally started to make its own luck, and Howard has taken out a political monopoly on it. The Frightened Country still harbours dark anxieties, some old and some new. Howard, the necromancer of our national psyche, conjures our fears to frighten us, and then offers to ban- ish them again to soothe us. He understands the Bipolar Nation. Peter Hartcher, Bipolar Nation

This issue also contains correspondence discussing Quarterly Essay 24, No Fixed Address, from Eric Rolls, and correspondence discussing Quarterly Essay 23, The History Question, from Kate Grenville, and Inga Clendinnen.