Predictably Irrational meets Moneyball in ESPN veteran writer and statistical analyst Keith Law's iconoclastic look at the numbers game of baseball, proving why some of the most trusted stats are surprisingly wrong, explaining what numbers actually work, and exploring what the rise of Big Data means for the future of the sport.
For decades, statistics such as batting average, saves recorded, and pitching won-lost records have been used to measure individual players' and teams' potential and success. But in the past fifteen years, a revolutionary new standard of measurement--sabermetrics--has been embraced by front offices in Major League Baseball and among fantasy baseball enthusiasts. But while sabermetrics is recognized as being smarter and more accurate, traditionalists, including journalists, fans, and managers, stubbornly believe that the old way--a combination of outdated numbers and gut instinct--is still the best way. Baseball, they argue, should be run by people, not by numbers.?
In this informative and provocative book, teh renowned ESPN analyst and senior baseball writer demolishes a century's worth of accepted wisdom, making the definitive case against the long-established view. Armed with concrete examples from different eras of baseball history, logic, a little math, and lively commentary, he shows how the allegiance to these numbers--dating back to the beginning of the professional game--is firmly rooted not in accuracy or success, but in baseball's irrational adherence to tradition.
While Law gores sacred cows, from clutch performers to RBIs to the infamous save rule, he also demystifies sabermetrics, explaining what these new numbers really are and why they're vital. He also considers the game's future, examining how teams are using Data--from PhDs to sophisticated statistical databases--to build future rosters; changes that will transform baseball and all of professional sports.
In this groundbreaking book, Keith Law, baseball writer for The Athletic and author of the acclaimed Smart Baseball, offers an era-spanning dissection of some of the best and worst decisions in modern baseball, explaining what motivated them, what can be learned from them, and how their legacy has shaped the game.
For years, Daniel Kahneman's iconic work of behavioral science Thinking Fast and Slow has been required reading in front offices across Major League Baseball. In this smart, incisive, and eye-opening book, Keith Law applies Kahneman's ideas about decision making to the game itself.
Baseball is a sport of decisions. Some are so small and routine they become the building blocks of the game itself--what pitch to throw or when to swing away. Others are so huge they dictate the future of franchises--when to make a strategic trade for a chance to win now, or when to offer a millions and a multi-year contract for a twenty-eight-year-old star. These decisions have long shaped the behavior of players, managers, and entire franchises. But as those choices have become more complex and data-driven, knowing what's behind them has become key to understanding the sport. This fascinating, revelatory work explores as never before the essential question: What were they thinking?
Combining behavioral science and interviews with executives, managers, and players, Keith Law analyzes baseball's biggest decision making successes and failures, looking at how gambles and calculated risks of all sizes and scales have shaped the sport, and how the game's ongoing data revolution is rewriting decades of accepted decision making. In the process, he explores questions that have long been debated, from whether throwing harder really increases a player's risk of serious injury to whether teams actually overvalue trade prospects.
Bringing his analytical and combative style to some of baseball's longest running debates, Law deepens our knowledge of the sport in this entertaining work that is both fun and deeply informative.
Move over, Moneyball -- this New York Times bestseller examines major league baseball's next cutting-edge revolution: the high-tech quest to build better players.
As bestselling authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik reveal in The MVP Machine, the Moneyball era is over. Fifteen years after Michael Lewis brought the Oakland Athletics' groundbreaking team-building strategies to light, every front office takes a data-driven approach to evaluating players, and the league's smarter teams no longer have a huge advantage in valuing past performance.
Lindbergh and Sawchik's behind-the-scenes reporting reveals:
Instead of out-drafting, out-signing, and out-trading their rivals, baseball's best minds have turned to out-developing opponents, gaining greater edges than ever by perfecting prospects and eking extra runs out of older athletes who were once written off. Lindbergh and Sawchik take us inside the transformation of former fringe hitters into home-run kings, show how washed-up pitchers have emerged as aces, and document how coaching and scouting are being turned upside down. The MVP Machine charts the future of a sport and offers a lesson that goes beyond baseball: Success stems not from focusing on finished products, but from making the most of untapped potential.
This book features the NBA's statistical history, its all-time greatest teams and players, the best shooters, rebounders and playmakers. One chapter features statistical evidence that TENDEX was much more effective in rating players for the NBA draft than were the league's professional scouts. Book ends with a chart listing in order the 75 greatest players in NBA history.
Zack Hample's bestselling, smart, and funny fan's guide to baseball explains the ins and outs of pitching, hitting, running, and fielding, while offering insider trivia and anecdotes that will appeal to anyone--whether you're a major league couch potato, life-long season ticket-holder, or a beginner.
- What is the difference between a slider and a curveball?
- At which stadium did The Wave first make an appearance?
- Which positions are never played by lefties?
- Why do some players urinate on their hands?
Combining the narrative voice and attitude of Michael Lewis with the compulsive brilliance of Schott's Miscellany, Watching Baseball Smarter will increase your understanding and enjoyment of the sport--no matter what your level of expertise.
Featuring a glossary of baseball slang, an appendix of important baseball stats, and an appendix of uniform numbers.Interest in Sabermetrics has increased dramatically in recent years as the need to better compare baseball players has intensified among managers, agents and fans, and even other players. The authors explain how traditional measures--such as Earned Run Average, Slugging Percentage, and Fielding Percentage--along with new statistics--Wins Above Average, Fielding Independent Pitching, Wins Above Replacement, the Equivalence Coefficient and others--define the value of players.
Actual player statistics are used in developing models, while examples and exercises are provided in each chapter. This book serves as a guide for both beginners and those who wish to be successful in fantasy leagues.