The Instant New York Times Bestseller

Engaging and entertaining... a glimpse of the economy of the future. --Tim Wu, New York Times Book Review

From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk--and the players raising the stakes

In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates the River, the community of like-minded people whose mastery of risk allows them to shape--and dominate--so much of modern life.

These professional risk-takers--poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors--can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century. By immersing himself in the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.

Most of us don't have traits commonly found in the River: high tolerance for risk, appreciation of uncertainty, affinity for numbers--paired with an instinctive distrust of conventional wisdom and a competitive drive so intense it can border on irrational. For those in the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it. People in the River have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset--and the flaws in their thinking-- is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today.

Taking us behind the scenes from casinos to venture capital firms, and from the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of power bro­kers and risk-takers.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST

The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are superforecasters.

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

Forecasting is required in many situations. Deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand. Scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volumes. Stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly. Examples use R with many data sets taken from the authors' own consulting experience. In this third edition, all chapters have been updated to cover the latest research and forecasting methods. One new chapter has been added on time series features. The latest version of the book is freely available online at http: //OTexts.com/fpp3.

Learn the secrets of how successful businesses consistently predict and grow revenue.

Imagine how great it will feel presenting to your board when the team is perfectly aligned, everyone knows their numbers, and has a proven process to deliver growth.

It is not a dream. It can be reality.

The Forecast takes you on a step-by-step journey with a fictional team as they pull together to save their small tech business.

When confronted with their accountant's questionable advice to sell the family business, Danny and his sister take matters into their own hands and try to save the company from going under, while also saving their late dad's vision.

Through storytelling, humor, and hard-truth candor, The Forecast shares dozens of practical and easy to understand examples of how to pull together and kick start growth.

In this book you will DISCOVER:

- Tested leadership lessons from mentors and advisors

- Steps to empower your team to own their numbers and get results

- Proven techniques to build data-driven forecasts

PLUS, you will get free online access to:

- Forecasting Self-Assessment Questionnaires

- Customer Journey Checklists

- Templates for Conducting Forecasting Workshops

The Forecast is your roadmap for growth.

Huge Demographic Shifts Explained and Quantified for Decision Makers
Demographics determine the direction of your business. Demographic trends can be overwhelming, misleading, confusing, conflicting, and difficult to predict. Not anymore.
John Burns and Chris Porter wrote this book to help make demographic trends easier to understand, quantify, and anticipate. Readers of this book will have a huge competitive advantage because they will be making decisions with facts, and they will be better able to adjust their strategies when unanticipated events shift prevailing trends. Know the facts, and learn to - plan your business better; - support your decisions with facts; and - clarify the demographic confusion using the groupings and frameworks used in this book.

Learn the secrets of how successful businesses consistently predict and grow revenue.

Imagine how great it will feel presenting to your board when the team is perfectly aligned, everyone knows their numbers, and has a proven process to deliver growth.

It is not a dream. It can be reality.

The Forecast takes you on a step-by-step journey with a fictional team as they pull together to save their small tech business.

When confronted with their accountant's questionable advice to sell the family business, Danny and his sister take matters into their own hands and try to save the company from going under, while also saving their late dad's vision.

Through storytelling, humor, and hard-truth candor, The Forecast shares dozens of practical and easy to understand examples of how to pull together and kick start growth.

In this book you will DISCOVER:

- Tested leadership lessons from mentors and advisors

- Steps to empower your team to own their numbers and get results

- Proven techniques to build data-driven forecasts

PLUS, you will get free online access to:

- Forecasting Self-Assessment Questionnaires

- Customer Journey Checklists

- Templates for Conducting Forecasting Workshops

The Forecast is your roadmap for growth.

How would like to spot future trends before the competition?

We all know the rules for success in our business or professions, yet we also know that these rules--paradigms--can change at any time. What Joel Barker does in Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future is explain how to spot paradigm shifts, how they unfold, and how to profit from them. Through the power of this method--paradigm spotting--you can:

• Find the people in your organization most likely to spot a new trend
• Help your key people adapt when a massive change is occurring
• Learn to effectively grapple with your intractable problems and improve your results incalculably.

In addition, Paradigms is full of concrete examples of paradigm shifts and predictions for the future, and contains a new introduction detailing recent developments and pointing out areas to watch tor paradigm shifts.

INSTANT WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER!

Bold, provocative...illuminates why we're having fewer babies, the middle class is stagnating, unemployment is shifting, and new powers are rising.
--ADAM GRANT

The world is changing drastically before our eyes--will you be prepared for what comes next? A groundbreaking analysis from one of the world's foremost experts on global trends, including analysis on how COVID-19 will amplify and accelerate each of these changes.

Once upon a time, the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies. Babies were plentiful, workers outnumbered retirees, and people aspiring towards the middle class yearned to own homes and cars. Companies didn't need to see any further than Europe and the United States to do well. Printed money was legal tender for all debts, public and private. We grew up learning how to play the game, and we expected the rules to remain the same as we took our first job, started a family, saw our children grow up, and went into retirement with our finances secure.

That world--and those rules--are over.

By 2030, a new reality will take hold, and before you know it:

- There will be more grandparents than grandchildren
- The middle-class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined
- The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history
- There will be more global wealth owned by women than men
- There will be more robots than workers
- There will be more computers than human brains
- There will be more currencies than countries

All these trends, currently underway, will converge in the year 2030 and change everything you know about culture, the economy, and the world.

According to Mauro F. Guillen, the only way to truly understand the global transformations underway--and their impacts--is to think laterally. That is, using peripheral vision, or approaching problems creatively and from unorthodox points of view. Rather than focusing on a single trend--climate-change or the rise of illiberal regimes, for example--Guillen encourages us to consider the dynamic inter-play between a range of forces that will converge on a single tipping point--2030--that will be, for better or worse, the point of no return.

2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of lateral thinking, thereby revolutionizing the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences.

2017 Reprint of 1939 Edition. Full facsimile of the original edition, not reproduced with Optical Recognition software. The author believes in the nature of certain cyclical climatic forces which seem to influence our outlook and behavior. Smith provides intricate charts showing how rain and weather influence the rise and fall of market prices and sales. He maintains that certain situations follow a ten year pattern. Certainly not for the average investor who hopes to find a new trick, but perhaps better suited for the research minded who want to apply intricate mathematical suppositions and theories to an interesting field.

This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.

Now used by the University of Kentucky entrepreneurship program, University of Pepperdine, and other colleges and high schools across the US, including graduate programs.

See why people are using the revolutionary new way to plan a business outlined in this book, and why they get better results.

HOW THIS BOOK IS DIFFERENT AND DELIVERS RESULTS

Other business planner books teach traditional business planning with cumbersome templates which cause people to get confused and quit, or write ineffective business plans.

STEP 1:

This book starts with only a 3-sentence business plan, which helps you identify your core business strategies.

STEP 2:

After you create your own 3-sentence business plan, you will be guided on how to expand it to a 1-page business plan.

STEP 3:

After you have a 1-page business plan, you will learn how to expand it into a full and professional business plan.

THE BOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED EVERY YEAR SINCE PUBLICATION

The latest edition takes you beyond just writing a business plan. Planning is necessary, but over-planning or planning without starting your business leads to failure.

That's why the latest edition of this book gives you skills to become a stronger entrepreneur, launch your business, and succeed once your business is up and running.

BENEFITS OF THIS APPROACH

• Write a higher-quality business plan
• Identify the most effective strategies for your business
• Complete your business plan faster
• Avoid confusion and frustration

EXPERIENCED AND AUTHORITATIVE AUTHOR

Anyone can claim to be a business expert, but the knowledge in this book comes from the author, Alex Genadinik, who has:

• Coached over 1,000 entrepreneurs
• Created top business planning apps
• Taught tens of thousands of people in his business planning courses
• Guest-lectured at numerous universities
• Built multiple successful businesses while being an independent entrepreneur just like you

INVEST IN YOUR FUTURE AND FREEDOM

Imagine how great your life will be if you are the owner of a successful business, provide for your family, live comfortably, and avoid daily 9-5 stress.

Take this step to starting your business, achieve financial independence, and gain the freedom you desire.

STRUCTURED AS A BUSINESS PLAN TEMPLATE

One of the chapters in this book is structured like a business plan template with examples for what to write in every section of the business plan. It is meant for you to write your business plan as you read the book.

By the end of that chapter, you will have a professional business plan.

NOW WITH A CASE STUDY OF A $1,000,000 CLIENT

A recent addition in this book is a business plan for a client's Ecommerce business that I helped take to over $1,000,000 in annual revenue.

You'll see the business plan for that client and more importantly, what we did to get his business to grow.

AFTER YOU READ THE BOOK

If you are a first-time entrepreneur, after the first few chapters, you will have a much better understanding of business strategies and the steps to get started and succeed.

Invest in your future. Get the book today!