Making good decisions under conditions of uncertainty requires a sound appreciation of the way random chance works. It requires, in short, an understanding of probability. In this Very Short Introduction, John Haigh introduces the ideas of probability--and the different philosophical approaches to probability--and gives a brief account of the history of development of probability theory, from Galileo and Pascal to Bayes, Laplace, Poisson, and Markov. He describes the basic probability distributions and discusses a wide range of applications in science, economics, and a variety of other contexts such as games and betting. He concludes with an intriguing discussion of coincidences and some curious paradoxes.

How does mathematics impact everyday events? The purpose of this book is to show a range of examples where mathematics can be seen at work in everyday life.

From money (APR, mortgage repayments, personal finance), simple first and second order ODEs, sport and games (tennis, rugby, athletics, darts, tournament design, soccer, snooker), business (stock control, linear programming, check digits, promotion policies, investment), the social sciences (voting methods, Simpson's Paradox, drug testing, measurements of inequality) to TV game shows and even gambling (lotteries, roulette, poker, horse racing), the mathematics behind commonplace events is explored. Fully worked examples illustrate the ideas discussed and each chapter ends with a collection of exercises.

Everyday Mathematics supports other first year modules by giving students extra practice in working with calculus, linear algebra, geometry, trigonometry and probability. Secondary/high school level mathematics is all that is required for students to understand the material. Those students whose degree course includes writing an extended mathematical essay will find many suitable topics here, with pointers to extend and develop the material.

Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyzes a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favor. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on Who Wants to be a Millionaire? and The Weakest Link, plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers.

The purpose of this book is to provide a sound introduction to the study of real-world phenomena that possess random variation. It describes how to set up and analyse models of real-life phenomena that involve elements of chance. Motivation comes from everyday experiences of probability, such as that of a dice or cards, the idea of fairness in games of chance, and the random ways in which, say, birthdays are shared or particular events arise.

Applications include branching processes, random walks, Markov chains, queues, renewal theory, and Brownian motion. This textbook contains many worked examples and several chapters have been updated and expanded for the second edition.

Some mathematical knowledge is assumed. The reader should have the ability to work with unions, intersections and complements of sets; a good facility with calculus, including integration, sequences and series; and appreciation of the logical development of an argument. Probability Modelsis designed to aid students studying probability as part of an undergraduate course on mathematics or mathematics and statistics.

1 Money.- 2 Differential Equations.- 3 Sport and Games.- 4 Business Applications.- 5 Social Sciences.- 6 TV Game Shows.- 7 Gambling.- 8 Computer Applications.- Appendix.- Index.